Tuesday, 21 April 2009

Solutions required for ragged Rays

This is turning into slightly more than a blip. Gavin Floyd took a shutout into the seventh inning, and Carlos Quentin and Jim Thome hit back-to-back homers as the Chicago White Sox beat the Rays 12-2 on Sunday.
Fingers across the state are hovering over the panic button, but what could be done to arrest this slide that has seen the Rays slip to 5-8? Tampa Bay Online's Joe Henderson offers some answers in his column. Read the whole thing and comment on the article here

The Tampa Bay Rays would be a better offensive team this season than they were a year ago.
I was certain of that.
But then they went out and scored four runs or less in nine of their first 13 games, and all the guys that were supposed to lead this great offensive explosion got the wrong memo and were imploding instead.
So what happened?
More importantly, can it be fixed?
In order: A) They're just two weeks into a six-month season; B) Of course it can be fixed, but there are little warning signs – even this early – that should make Rays' fans at least a little uneasy. Take last Thursday, for instance, when Gabe Gross came up in the bottom of the ninth, tying run at third, winning run at second.
Last year, Gross would have put the ball in the seats, or at least in the gap, in a spot like that
This year, he grounded weakly to first.
They start a nine-game road trip tonight with a game at Seattle, and while a 5-8 overall record is hardly time for panic, it is time for concern. They're just not playing well right now, and they aren't doing the little things that won a lot of games in 2008.
Ever wonder how a team that was ninth last year among American League teams in runs scored and next-to-last in team batting average could win 97 games and go to the World Series? They walked a lot, stole a lot of bases, and moved runners along with what Manager Joe Maddon likes to call "productive outs."
It also seemed like they got a clutch hit whenever they needed one.
That magic has yet to appear this season.
Lots Of Strikeouts
The Rays of 2008 actually struck out a lot, and then they added Pat Burrell to the middle of the lineup. He strikes out a lot, too.
Look it up yourself if you want, or take my word for it. Burrell has averaged 137 strikeouts per season over the last four years. B.J. Upton struck out 134 times last year. Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria fanned 166 and 122 times respectively, and neither played a full season.
Akinori Iwamura even struck out 131 times.
Those numbers probably won't vary much this season.
"That's just how we're built. But I would prefer that we learn if we have runners in scoring position I don't want us to get so big necessarily," Maddon said. "Just move the ball, get the knock, and play to the middle of the field. That's what a good RBI guy does."
I thought Burrell might struggle a bit as he adjusts to a full-time DH role, and he has. That's always a concern when you take a guy used to playing every inning and reduce his workload to basically four at-bats per night.
"It's not easy to do. He's been working at it since spring training. He did it in the off-season by calling other DH's to see what they do. He's fine. He just needs to have more at-bats. Overall, I think he has had a lot of good at-bats," Maddon said.
"If you look at Pat's career, historically there are periods where he gets cold and others where he gets hot. I believe the hot stuff is coming soon."
He could be right.
Burrell may strike out a lot, but he also has a lifetime on-base percentage of .379. Right now his OBP is .319, so if you're a glass-half-full sort, take comfort in that. The numbers say Burrell will get on base and he will be productive.
In case you're thinking that Maddon ought to give him some time in the outfield, though, just to snap him out of it, don't your breath.
"We have plenty of right fielders, so that's not part of the plan," he said.
Waiting To Get Hot
You can pick this thing to death, but basically here's how the problem looks to me.
B.J. Upton has started slowly because he missed a lot of spring training, but I think he'll be fine. I still think he can be quite a weapon at the top of the order.
"Just from my perspective, B.J. does take pitches – I'm good with that. A lot of time people want him to start becoming more aggressive and opening up the zone, but I don't want him to," Maddon said.
"He's going to get hot like he always does. He's basically in the latter stages of spring training. The pitchers are a step ahead of him but he'll catch up."
Carl Crawford has looked lost hitting at times behind Upton, but I don't think anyone is really worried about him. We don't know for sure that Burrell will successfully make the transition to DH, but he hasn't had fewer than 29 home runs or 86 RBIs in the last four seasons.
Pena and Longoria will strike out a lot, but they'll also hit 70 or more homers between them. Sometimes we forget how long a baseball season really is.
So yeah, even if they have looked futile, I still think this is a much better offensive team than last year.
All the Rays have to do now is prove that's right.

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